7/8/09

Current Streak: 6

The first pick of the day is another Tour De France pick. Stage 5 is apparently a sprinters stage. Cavendish is -225 at betus but I think a lot of that is juice because Cavendish has the yellow jersey and has won the last two sprinter stages. Because of this I brought the line down to -200. 66% still seems a little high but even if you reduce that % more it still will be good enough for the pick.

The Braves / cubs game is Over 9 -121 while the Pirates/Astros game is Under 8 -108 so the lean here is to the braves/cubs but I would rather pick the soccer game.

Once again I got the soccer line from our friends at paddypower. There is a decent amount of juice taken out because I used two different bets. One was a double chance and the other was the regular bet. If you were to bet on a draw and then bet on Rosario you would be 60.17% to win with juice taken out. I will be conservative and stick with the 57.64% and only pick Rosario if Cavendish loses.

There is only 4 picks to look at in the late games: Manny prop, Dodgers, Whitesox and the josh Hamilton prop. The white sox are only the pick if you do not like the dodgers on the road and you do not really care about the Josh Hamilton prop.

The Manny prop is interesting for a variety of reasons and I am going to create another post with how I came up with the %'s for that and the hamilton prop. It should be up sometime later tonight.