Streak Strategy pt. 1
There are two ways to win in the streak for cash:
1. Pick ~24 games right in a row
2. Have the most wins in a current month
In this series of post I will be looking at what strategies I think are the best to win each of these and then post a conclusion on the benefits and disadvantages to each side of the game. Both of the games seem to have completely opposite strategies and I would imagine it would be impossible to win both.
This post will talk about a strategy to produce the longest streak.
This chart shows the % chance of getting to certain levels of a streak. Even if you were able to pick games that had a 99% chance of happening you would only get to 25 77.78% of the time. Sadly for us a majority of the games we pick will be in the 60% range and that gives us a .000284% of winning. This means that there is a better chance of us getting struck by lightning (.000357%) than there is for winning this contest.
For us to have any shot of winning this we need to come up with a way to increase our chances of winning. I think this can be done if certain rules are always followed.
Rule 1). When you have no streak pick the game that allows you to make another pick as soon as possible no matter what the % chance of happening is.
Example Pick A at 1:05 Pm has a 52% chance of happening and the game should last 3 hours. Pick B at 1:05 PM has a 70% chance of happening and the game lasts 4 hours. Pick C at 4:30 has a 55% chance of happening.
The correct play would be to always choose Pick A over pick B. Since A only takes 3 hours it allows you to pick C which means now you have a 28.6% of picking 2 right and a 78.4% chance of picking 1 of them correctly. The question then becomes if Pick A hits do you pick C? Because 55% games are very common I think it makes sense to always pick C and only worry about your streak until you pick 3 right in a row.
Rule 2) Only pick games under 60 when you have a streak of 3 or less.
We can assume that we will make three picks a day and if those picks have a 55% chance of happening we can expect to have a streak of 3 every week. Its at this point that we should stop doing coin flips and become more strict in our picks.
Rule 3) For every other correct pick above 3 increase the min % chance of happening by .5% until you reach a streak of 14
With our min % starting at 60 we will reach a min level of 65% when we have a streak of 14. If we pick the min % every time we will get a streak of 10 (given we already have a streak of 3 to start with) .57% of the time.
Rule 4) Once the streak reaches 14 have a min level of 68% and raise it by .75% for every correct pick
If we follow this pattern we would have a 3.42% chance of getting a streak of 24 (given we already had a streak of 14). Depending on time constraints we may not have a chance of to pick games above 73 so if we cap the min % at 70% we would have a 2.68% of completing the streak
If we follow all four of these rules we would get a streak of 24 ~.00254% (.1664* .0057*.0268) of the time. 1/39250 looks a lot better then the 1/392500 we would expect with only picking 60% games. This number can be improved even further if we pick games that are above the minimum pick level.
As it stands now here is what the minimum pick structure would be:
If anyone is reading this let me know what you think about this strategy and if you have any other strategy ideas I would love to hear them.
1. Pick ~24 games right in a row
2. Have the most wins in a current month
In this series of post I will be looking at what strategies I think are the best to win each of these and then post a conclusion on the benefits and disadvantages to each side of the game. Both of the games seem to have completely opposite strategies and I would imagine it would be impossible to win both.
This post will talk about a strategy to produce the longest streak.
This chart shows the % chance of getting to certain levels of a streak. Even if you were able to pick games that had a 99% chance of happening you would only get to 25 77.78% of the time. Sadly for us a majority of the games we pick will be in the 60% range and that gives us a .000284% of winning. This means that there is a better chance of us getting struck by lightning (.000357%) than there is for winning this contest.For us to have any shot of winning this we need to come up with a way to increase our chances of winning. I think this can be done if certain rules are always followed.
Rule 1). When you have no streak pick the game that allows you to make another pick as soon as possible no matter what the % chance of happening is.
Example Pick A at 1:05 Pm has a 52% chance of happening and the game should last 3 hours. Pick B at 1:05 PM has a 70% chance of happening and the game lasts 4 hours. Pick C at 4:30 has a 55% chance of happening.
The correct play would be to always choose Pick A over pick B. Since A only takes 3 hours it allows you to pick C which means now you have a 28.6% of picking 2 right and a 78.4% chance of picking 1 of them correctly. The question then becomes if Pick A hits do you pick C? Because 55% games are very common I think it makes sense to always pick C and only worry about your streak until you pick 3 right in a row.
Rule 2) Only pick games under 60 when you have a streak of 3 or less.
We can assume that we will make three picks a day and if those picks have a 55% chance of happening we can expect to have a streak of 3 every week. Its at this point that we should stop doing coin flips and become more strict in our picks.
Rule 3) For every other correct pick above 3 increase the min % chance of happening by .5% until you reach a streak of 14
With our min % starting at 60 we will reach a min level of 65% when we have a streak of 14. If we pick the min % every time we will get a streak of 10 (given we already have a streak of 3 to start with) .57% of the time.
Rule 4) Once the streak reaches 14 have a min level of 68% and raise it by .75% for every correct pick
If we follow this pattern we would have a 3.42% chance of getting a streak of 24 (given we already had a streak of 14). Depending on time constraints we may not have a chance of to pick games above 73 so if we cap the min % at 70% we would have a 2.68% of completing the streak
If we follow all four of these rules we would get a streak of 24 ~.00254% (.1664* .0057*.0268) of the time. 1/39250 looks a lot better then the 1/392500 we would expect with only picking 60% games. This number can be improved even further if we pick games that are above the minimum pick level.
As it stands now here is what the minimum pick structure would be:
If anyone is reading this let me know what you think about this strategy and if you have any other strategy ideas I would love to hear them.
Labels: Strategy
posted by DSB at
11:35 PM
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